On Global Threat Prioritization

In this report, we consider two classes of threats: Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs) and Tactical Ballistic Missiles (TBMs). ASCMs are treated as being capable of maneuver, while the trajectory of a TBM is determined solely by its initial state. A threat is evaluated according to two basic criteria: the amount of damage it can potentially cause, and the time remaining during which it can be engaged. Both criteria depend on the types and positions of the threat's potential target. These targets fall into two classes: defended points (e.g., ships) and defended areas (e.g., cities). The defended targets are assigned values. The threat-evaluation process is repeated each time a threat's estimated state is updated and for every appreciable position change of a target. From the initial estimation of the state of an ASCM, simplified trajectories to each defended target reachable by the threat are calculated. Thus, the targets in jeopardy are identified, and the earliest arrival times and energy requirements are determined. TBMs are treated differently. From the initial estimation of the state of a TBM, its footprint on the earth's surface is determined. Uncertainties in the impact point are related to uncertainties in the initial state estimation and in the physical characteristics of the threat vehicle. An algorithm is proposed that calculates the probability of each defended asset becoming the target of a given threat. The result is a matrix of "Objective Probabilities" that is used to calculate the parameters used for the evaluation of the threats. One of these is the 'Maximum Expected Value Loss' that quantifies at any time the loss that any given threat might cause. It is a monotonic function of time that summarizes the importance of the threats to all the subsequent decision process.Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Div VA is the author of 'On Global Threat Prioritization' with ISBN 9781423502326 and ISBN 1423502329.