Crises in World Politics Theory and Reality

9780080413778

0080413773

Crises in World Politics presents an integrated theory of crisis at both system and state levels. The Unified Model of Crises was designed to answer core questions: Under what conditions will a crisis erupt? Why do some crises escalate to war while others do not? Under what conditions will a crisis 'wind-down'? How does stress affect decision-making in crises? When will states resort to violence in crisis management? Why do some crises terminate in agreement while others do not? Finally, what are the consequences of crises, both for the adversaries and for the system in which a crisis occurs? The answers lie in a sequence of four interrelated phases of crisis - onset, escalation, deescalation, and impact. Systematic knowledge is presented about how these phases unfold using the data on 70 years of international and foreign policy crises from 1918 to 1988, amassed by the International Crisis Behaviour (ICB) Project. And an in-depth case study applies the United Model to the Gulf Crisis 1990-1991